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Woodams Clark's avatar

Hey dude glad to see you back and glad to hear you got some good personal time in. I'll admit it, when I messaged you I had some mild concern you might have burnt yourself out with all the research and posting you do 🤣

For the first two weeks I was missing my little personal schedule of reading your articles; learning and absorbing the market.. but in the end, I'm actually really glad you took a break.

I started to realize I had a pretty decent foundation of knowledge from all your posts and thought it a good time to start applying what I've learned. I spent your time away discovering TradingView and developing my own panel. It started dead ass simple but I really love how quickly it grew into something useful and reflective of my trading style. Previously I was just looking at MACD/RSI/Price on Robinhood. It was good enough for long enough, I'm slowly moving off the platform.

I started by trying out a "Momentum Mentality" where I'm really just looking for overbought/sold in MACD/RSI, and then I check 10/20/50 SMA to make sure the trend makes sense, checking for cross overs, and checking resistance/support. I always thought resistance/support were a little "pseudo-sciency", but no that's real lol. You just need the right tools to start seeing the patterns and keep in mind the market doesn't care about what you predict.

Anyway, my process made good predictions on XLE spikes and I got some good gains there. I kinda forget what I did, but I think I saw it was spiking every other friday on the downtrend. Ended up overtrading it though, I made money on the most recent spike up, and then puts on the anticipated return to mean....😃🙂🙃 anddd of course it didn't drop until expiration day lol. but I was happy that 1) I was still correct predicting it, timing was just bad. 2) Revealed my next goal is to work on learning to cut out of trades earlier, rather than "wait to be right". I suspect XLE is done downtrending and has found support. Might be related to today's CPI that I haven't read yet 🤞

Same time as the XLE failed puts, I grabbed QQQ calls and rode up from 480 -> 495 just about doubling my money. For that trade, I just saw that When the market uptrends, there are usually 3 bullish hills in the MACD. Each hill is slightly smaller than the previous. I believe this is when larger market players are scaling in their money into a market. They tend to occur End of Month, or Quarterly.

I don't think it's anything fancy I'm doing, and it's pretty easy in a predictable bull market. Hard part is knowing when the trend will change, like a rug out from under you. That + my XLE failed puts reveal my need for managing my downside better.

That all said, very happy with what I learned this month. I've gained confidence in identifying trends and buying opportunities. And my next goals are learning to manage downside I think this will look like learning to accept missing gains, in exchange for taking smaller losses. I have a much stronger sense of what the market "is" and tied a lot of the theory we've discussed here to reality.

Excited to see this year play out. Elections should be spicy. I'm planning to play it as overhyped volatility that sizzles out once the world keeps spinning.

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