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Glad to see you back and in the Bay Area—let’s catch up sometime soon as you get settled!

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Thanks James 😊 Let's do that!

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Good thoughts here, and congrats on the move and new job! As for the 50bps cut, I tend to think 2001 and 2007 are more outliers here. The markets and the economy are very different and much stronger today than what was happening during those instances.

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And thanks! I'm excited for this new chapter :)

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Agreed, and the central bank today is much more willing to immediately fire up the printers to quell any financial troubles as well.

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Sep 23·edited Sep 23Liked by FinanceTLDR

Welcome back! No need to guilt yourself over a hiatus. Glad your move went smoothly. I'm actually OG from Buffalo NY, coulda waved to you across the falls lol.

Fascinating that stocks dump after a rate cut. I've been watching a rising wedge forming on the 5yr plot and started thinking that the rate cut invalidated the rising wedge. maybe not!

The price has been rising, but MACD shows declining buying pressure after each cycle. I'm thinking some sort of pull back is coming in Oct/Nov

I was curious too why Fed went for .5 cut, but thought back to your older posts about the Fed signaling in hidden language. IMO they are creating confidence with consistency. I think the Fed is wanting to show they stand strongly behind the US economy. Maybe it's for political reasons? Maybe it's to give confidence to share holders in US Markets.

Either way, a strong rate cute tracks well from the last meeting where they eased tightening unexpectedly.

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Hah nice. That's cool, it'd be great to meet up someday. I was by Niagara Falls around Christmas. It was very cold and windy 😅 but the Christmas lights were beautiful.

Yeah the Fed has been surprisingly very accomodative this year, first with the massive QT cut and now the big opening 0.5 cut. Election year I guess.

And I also agree, it's an uncanny feeling, but I feel like a big market move is going to happen soon, perhaps after the election. All the populism fades, political pressure eases up, and monetary policy becomes more reasonable and restrained.

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welcome back!

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thank you, it's good to be back :D

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Let’s collaborate!!! 💛🙏

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happy to hear any ideas for collaboration! :)

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Glad to see you back and in the Bay Area—let’s catch up sometime soon as you get settled!

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Glad to see you back and in the Bay Area—let’s catch up sometime soon as you get settled!

Expand full comment