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Manifest's avatar

What are your thoughts on CPI and when the Fed will start cutting interest rates?

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FinanceTLDR's avatar

Came in as expected, but higher than January. I personally don't think the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. Some subdued cutting this year, maybe 0.25-0.5%. Powell wants his legacy to be killing this bout of inflation and he might be out of a job next year if Trump wins.

What does this mean for markets?

Large cap high cash flow stocks will continue to outperform while small caps keep getting suppressed. Concentration in a few large cap stocks is not a bug but a feature in a high interest rate environment.

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Harriet Marshall's avatar

0dtes, risky or non-factor?

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FinanceTLDR's avatar

Good question. Imo non-factor / good for markets. 0dtes make something discrete (weekly expires into something more continuous, daily expiries). Making something more continuous in markets is usually a good thing. Also we've had 0dtes ever since the introduction of tradable contracts with expiry dates. If you trade the contract on the same day it expires, you're trading a 0dte. The only difference now is that there are more expiry dates.

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