Yeah this inflation data is concerning. I do feel like the Fed is giving this vague story of “we want to cut rates” and the market is buying into it and look for any data that promotes rate cuts.
It’s great used car sales are down, but energy controls inflation for…everything that needs transport.
I’m half expecting next CPI to show an uptick and market will wildly react thinking it’s an inflation trend reversal. But it’s always still been going up, just sandbagged by used cars.
I think that’s what I consider the major risk is for these geopolitical events. Risk to energy costs or another import/export slowdown (blocked ports?) would give a timid market a readjustment.
I’ve kept some puts out to September. I don’t feel like they’re going to pay out, but they make me more comfortable to trade now.
Torn on NVIDIA. I think it’ll shoot up, but Idk if I can stomach the risk of 4K on 1 call
Yes. It's prudent to have some put positions here.
Can't bet on geopolitical risks but also can't ignore them. As such, the best way to handle this is a small allocation to high asymmetry puts. Even if you lose you get capital loss that carries forward infinitely until you use it.
For one, who knows what Iran would do after their President and Foreign Minister were killed. Powerful government officials don't just die like that, and for it to happen to Iran at this point is even more worrying. Could be negligence and bad luck, but who knows how they'll actually react. They could suddenly make an announcement that they think this was caused by belligerent state actors.
The one big positive to Persian foreign policy is that they don't want direct war.
"Iran's art of war is to avoid war as much as possible; that is partly achieved by repeatedly threatening war. The main formative period for Iranian grand strategy was the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Lesson one: War is costly in blood and treasure. Lesson two: Don't fight at home and take your war elsewhere—as far as possible from your borders. Lesson three: Don't wage war with your own flesh and blood."
Not clue on what Nvidia will do. I think more down than up. I put a lot of weight on Druckenmiller's moves.
Yeah this inflation data is concerning. I do feel like the Fed is giving this vague story of “we want to cut rates” and the market is buying into it and look for any data that promotes rate cuts.
It’s great used car sales are down, but energy controls inflation for…everything that needs transport.
I’m half expecting next CPI to show an uptick and market will wildly react thinking it’s an inflation trend reversal. But it’s always still been going up, just sandbagged by used cars.
I think that’s what I consider the major risk is for these geopolitical events. Risk to energy costs or another import/export slowdown (blocked ports?) would give a timid market a readjustment.
I’ve kept some puts out to September. I don’t feel like they’re going to pay out, but they make me more comfortable to trade now.
Torn on NVIDIA. I think it’ll shoot up, but Idk if I can stomach the risk of 4K on 1 call
Yes. It's prudent to have some put positions here.
Can't bet on geopolitical risks but also can't ignore them. As such, the best way to handle this is a small allocation to high asymmetry puts. Even if you lose you get capital loss that carries forward infinitely until you use it.
For one, who knows what Iran would do after their President and Foreign Minister were killed. Powerful government officials don't just die like that, and for it to happen to Iran at this point is even more worrying. Could be negligence and bad luck, but who knows how they'll actually react. They could suddenly make an announcement that they think this was caused by belligerent state actors.
The one big positive to Persian foreign policy is that they don't want direct war.
This is a great resource to how they think: https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2021/feb/17/iran%E2%80%99s-missiles-military-strategy
"Iran's art of war is to avoid war as much as possible; that is partly achieved by repeatedly threatening war. The main formative period for Iranian grand strategy was the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Lesson one: War is costly in blood and treasure. Lesson two: Don't fight at home and take your war elsewhere—as far as possible from your borders. Lesson three: Don't wage war with your own flesh and blood."
Not clue on what Nvidia will do. I think more down than up. I put a lot of weight on Druckenmiller's moves.